Panel A: Whole Sample (Dec 7, 2015 to Jun 30, 2021)
Regime Ķ = 1 Regime Ķ = 2 Non-MSGARCH
DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
-0.161*** -0.447*** -0.142*** -0.436*** -0.978* -0.353***
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
-0.092*** -1.464*** -0.049 -1.439*** -0.141** -0.111***
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
-0.029 0.208 -0.216*** 0.195 -0.111 -0.334***
AIC -46.131 -52.805 -46.426 -49.448 -40.125 -39.07
LL 29.065 32.402 29.213 30.724 26.062 25.535
Transition Probabilities Matrix
P11 1.000 1.000 0.796 0.592
P22 0.777 0.887
Panel B: Pre-Covid 19 (Dec 7, 2015, to March 10, 2020)
Regime Ķ = 1 Regime Ķ = 2 Non-MSGARCH
DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
-0.235 -1.055*** -0.828*** -1.063* -0.139 -0.703***
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
-0.094*** -0.151*** -0.157** -0.171*** -0.094*** -0.116***
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
-0.285*** -0.111 -0.126*** -0.116 -0.308*** -0.181***
AIC -30.352 -28.959 -31.055 -27.757 -30.293 -27.476
LL 21.176 20.479 21.527 19.878 21.146 19.735
Transition Probabilities Matrix
P11 1.000 1.000 0.953 0.979
P22 0.682 0.970
Panel C: Covid-19 (March 11, 2020, to Jun 30, 2021)
Regime Ķ = 1 Regime  Ķ = 2 Non-MSGARCH
DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD DJIM-GOLD DJCA-GOLD
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
-0.194*** -0.432*** -0.246*** -0.559*** -0.307 -0.482
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
-0.011 -0.607*** -0.019 -0.588*** -0.035 -0.595***
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
-0.562*** -0.719*** -0.662*** -0.612*** 0.007 -0.731
AIC -5.104 -12.758 -6.267 -15.297 -4.616 -12.519
LL 8.552 12.379 9.133 13.648 8.308 12.259
Transition Probabilities Matrix
P11 1.000 1.000 0.869 0.856
P22 0.663 0.781