|
Regime Ķ = 1 |
Regime Ķ = 2 |
Non-MSGARCH |
|
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
|
-0.161*** |
-0.447*** |
-0.142*** |
-0.436*** |
-0.978* |
-0.353*** |
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
|
-0.092*** |
-1.464*** |
-0.049 |
-1.439*** |
-0.141** |
-0.111*** |
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
|
-0.029 |
0.208 |
-0.216*** |
0.195 |
-0.111 |
-0.334*** |
AIC
|
-46.131 |
-52.805 |
-46.426 |
-49.448 |
-40.125 |
-39.07 |
LL
|
29.065 |
32.402 |
29.213 |
30.724 |
26.062 |
25.535 |
Transition Probabilities Matrix
|
P11
|
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.796 |
0.592 |
|
|
P22
|
|
|
0.777 |
0.887 |
|
|
Panel B: Pre-Covid 19 (Dec 7, 2015, to March 10, 2020)
|
|
Regime Ķ = 1 |
Regime Ķ = 2 |
Non-MSGARCH |
|
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
|
-0.235 |
-1.055*** |
-0.828*** |
-1.063* |
-0.139 |
-0.703*** |
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
|
-0.094*** |
-0.151*** |
-0.157** |
-0.171*** |
-0.094*** |
-0.116*** |
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
|
-0.285*** |
-0.111 |
-0.126*** |
-0.116 |
-0.308*** |
-0.181*** |
AIC
|
-30.352 |
-28.959 |
-31.055 |
-27.757 |
-30.293 |
-27.476 |
LL
|
21.176 |
20.479 |
21.527 |
19.878 |
21.146 |
19.735 |
Transition Probabilities Matrix
|
P11
|
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.953 |
0.979 |
|
|
P22
|
|
|
0.682 |
0.970 |
|
|
Panel C: Covid-19 (March 11, 2020, to Jun 30, 2021)
|
|
Regime Ķ = 1 |
Regime Ķ = 2 |
Non-MSGARCH |
|
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
DJIM-GOLD |
DJCA-GOLD |
\(\mathcal{W}_{0}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(dependence)
|
-0.194*** |
-0.432*** |
-0.246*** |
-0.559*** |
-0.307 |
-0.482 |
\(\mathcal{W}_{1}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(persistence)
|
-0.011 |
-0.607*** |
-0.019 |
-0.588*** |
-0.035 |
-0.595*** |
\(\mathcal{W}_{2}^{T}\mathcal{S}_{t}\)
(variation)
|
-0.562*** |
-0.719*** |
-0.662*** |
-0.612*** |
0.007 |
-0.731 |
AIC
|
-5.104 |
-12.758 |
-6.267 |
-15.297 |
-4.616 |
-12.519 |
LL
|
8.552 |
12.379 |
9.133 |
13.648 |
8.308 |
12.259 |
Transition Probabilities Matrix
|
P11
|
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.869 |
0.856 |
|
|
P22
|
|
|
0.663 |
0.781 |
|
|